Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.019275 2.138073 2.262922 2.404379 2.560783 2.729089 2.924793
2025-09-21 1.818703 1.979253 2.155853 2.366142 2.611906 2.892826 3.242359
2025-09-28 1.683075 1.864335 2.069758 2.322717 2.630027 2.997030 3.477741
2025-10-05 1.621861 1.824314 2.059848 2.358768 2.735135 3.203751 3.849515
2025-10-12 1.573623 1.793278 2.054633 2.395203 2.837994 3.410953 4.239804
2025-10-19 1.529793 1.763023 2.046005 2.423487 2.928722 3.606280 4.633277
2025-10-26 1.474559 1.714534 2.010269 2.412300 2.963424 3.725156 4.927601
2025-11-02 1.425058 1.670035 1.976142 2.399429 2.992539 3.835726 5.219719
2025-11-09 1.373914 1.620640 1.932520 2.370051 2.994740 3.904942 5.452112
2025-11-16 1.326511 1.573771 1.889552 2.338316 2.990054 3.961469 5.668164
2025-11-23 1.295942 1.547305 1.871997 2.340139 3.033266 4.093735 6.031040
2025-11-30 1.273150 1.529891 1.865384 2.356330 3.097972 4.264563 6.488436
2025-12-07 1.233204 1.488756 1.825496 2.323627 3.087364 4.313967 6.730210
2025-12-14 1.194553 1.448069 1.784638 2.287409 3.068761 4.348045 6.947473
2025-12-21 1.156771 1.407272 1.742000 2.246293 3.039375 4.360267 7.120843
2025-12-28 1.146121 1.402897 1.749871 2.280428 3.132469 4.595734 7.816552
2026-01-04 1.136219 1.399014 1.757988 2.314909 3.228051 4.845682 8.605453
2026-01-11 1.124486 1.392057 1.761207 2.341663 3.312145 5.083308 9.429215
2026-01-18 1.102361 1.369797 1.741329 2.331083 3.330897 5.195367 9.959558
2026-01-25 1.080947 1.347886 1.721138 2.318907 3.345741 5.300727 10.500585
2026-02-01 1.056184 1.320546 1.692042 2.291108 3.330802 5.342999 10.871816
2026-02-08 1.031946 1.293349 1.662336 2.261065 3.309926 5.370671 11.208252
2026-02-15 1.017488 1.279764 1.652448 2.262791 3.347083 5.526739 12.002082